Southampton 1-3 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

Southampton
1-3 HT 1-2
Newcastle United
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Southampton vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.09
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
55%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.64
6+ Goals
14%
6.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
9.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.25
1/X
9%
17.7
X/1
8%
12.65
X/2
11%
4.15
X/X
11%
7.06
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.76
2/X
5%
15.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.25 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
16%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
54%
Away Win
64%
-9.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.04/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/1.06
+9% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +35%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 465 · 83%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.5
13.7 Crosses 17.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Southampton vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Newcastle United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.24 xG 1.72
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 Passes 267
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
30.04.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
31.01.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 2-1 Southampton Southampton İNLK
24.01.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
06.11.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-4 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
10.03.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Southampton 1-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
1-3
AWAY Newcastle United
0.76 xG 2.93
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
396 Passes 357
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United saw off Southampton 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Southampton had 53% of the ball to Newcastle United's 47%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.76 to 2.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Southampton and 2.17 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Newcastle United?

Southampton 1-3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Southampton 20%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 54%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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