Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.69
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
17%
4.78
X/2
12%
7.58
X/X
9%
4.83
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
8%
5.51
2/X EV+ ✓
12%
13.55
Value flag · 2/X at 13.55 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.38/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.31
+27% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.6 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Villarreal
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.75 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
392 Passes 468
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
01.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.11.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
04.06.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.08.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.01.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
1-1
AWAY Villarreal
1.71 xG 2.24
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
512 Passes 325
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
37 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid and Villarreal shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 59% of the ball to Villarreal's 41%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.71 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.67 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 45%, draw 29%, Villarreal 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ BTTS Yes
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