Atalanta II 0-1 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta II EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +20%
1.97/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.18
+25% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta II
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Lumezzane
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Lumezzane Lumezzane 2-1 HT 2-0 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTC
05.03.2024 Atalanta II Atalanta II 1-0 HT 1-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
28.10.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTC
04.10.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 2-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta II
0-1
AWAY Lumezzane
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta II vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lumezzane squeezed past Atalanta II 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta II at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atalanta II had 60% of the ball to Lumezzane's 40%, shots finished 22-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Atalanta II had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta II and 1.25 for Lumezzane.

What was the final score of Atalanta II vs Lumezzane?

Atalanta II 0-1 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta II vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta II 45%, draw 25%, Lumezzane 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atalanta II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta II) ✓ Under 2.5
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