Athletic Carpi 1-0 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.79 — our 23% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 37%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
2.00/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.90
+66% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -42%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Carpi
0W-0D-1L
AWAY SPAL
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2024 SPAL SPAL 2-1 HT 2-0 Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Carpi
1-0
AWAY SPAL
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Athletic Carpi vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Carpi squeezed past SPAL 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Athletic Carpi made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Athletic Carpi had 44% of the ball to SPAL's 56%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Athletic Carpi vs SPAL?

Athletic Carpi 1-0 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Carpi vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated an SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Athletic Carpi 35%, draw 29%, SPAL 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ BTTS Yes
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