Monaco 3-2 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.21
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 23% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.4
X/1
24%
4.16
X/2
7%
9.72
X/X
8%
5.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.4
2/2
9%
7.89
2/X
8%
16.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
1.67/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.50
+0% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
17.4 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Rennes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 1.58
44% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
300 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
07.04.2024 Monaco Monaco 1-0 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
09.12.2023 Rennes Rennes 1-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
27.05.2023 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.08.2022 Monaco Monaco 1-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
15.04.2022 Rennes Rennes 2-3 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
3-2
AWAY Rennes
3.53 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
349 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
45 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco nicked a narrow win over Rennes 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Monaco had 52% of the ball to Rennes's 48%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 3.53 to 1.77 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monaco and 1.17 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Rennes?

Monaco 3-2 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Monaco 54%, draw 25%, Rennes 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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