Atletico San Luis 0-3 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 25% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.46/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.11
+3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
303 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
21.1 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Necaxa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 1.11
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 249
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
09.03.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 3-1 HT 2-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
23.10.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 4-0 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
07.01.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 2-3 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
08.08.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-2 HT 1-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 4-2 HT 3-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
0-3
AWAY Necaxa
1.76 xG 2.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
443 Passes 276
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa cruised past Atletico San Luis 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico San Luis at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 59% of the ball to Necaxa's 41%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.76 to 2.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico San Luis and 2.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?

Atletico San Luis 0-3 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 42%, draw 25%, Necaxa 33%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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