Mazatlan 2-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.83
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
30%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
9.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -23%
1.29/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.12
+7% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.3 Crosses 17.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Toluca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.20 xG 1.64
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
267 Passes 478
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2024 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
21.01.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
11.11.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
12.03.2023 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
17.09.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
22.01.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
2-1
AWAY Toluca
1.58 xG 0.91
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 3
348 Passes 414
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan edged past Toluca 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Mazatlan made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Mazatlan had 47% of the ball to Toluca's 53%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 1.58 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mazatlan and 2.33 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Toluca?

Mazatlan 2-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 32%, draw 28%, Toluca 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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