Mazatlan vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mazatlan v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Mazatlan vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
4-1
HT 2-1
Mazatlan
MEK
1-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
1-2
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Mazatlan 2-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Mazatlan edged past Toluca 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Mazatlan made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.
On the day, Mazatlan had 47% of the ball to Toluca's 53%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 1.58 to 0.91.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mazatlan and 2.33 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Toluca?
Mazatlan 2-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 32%, draw 28%, Toluca 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.