Maritimo 2-2 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
35%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
14%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 32% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
50%
-10.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 27%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
1.21/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.17
-14% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.9 Crosses 19.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.28 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
270 Passes 338
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
11.02.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
02.09.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
15.04.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 3-1 HT 2-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
28.10.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
09.04.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 2-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
2-2
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
2.26 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 4
243 Passes 197
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo and Paços De Ferreira couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Maritimo had 54% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 46%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.26 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Maritimo and 0.83 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Paços De Ferreira?

Maritimo 2-2 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 40%, draw 29%, Paços De Ferreira 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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