Felgueiras 1932 0-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.51
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
16%
4.19
6+ Goals
7%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 34% vs market 32.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.0pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 33%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.35/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.20
-23% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.2 Crosses 16.7
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Felgueiras 1932
0W-4D-1L
AWAY Alverca
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.13 xG 1.04
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
72 Passes 189
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.08.2024 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 0-0 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR2
20.04.2024 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 0-0 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR3
24.02.2024 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 1-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
29.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 2-0 HT 2-0 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR3
09.04.2023 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 1-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Felgueiras 1932
0-1
AWAY Alverca
2.51 xG 0.66
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 1
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
147 Passes 141
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Felgueiras 1932 vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca edged past Felgueiras 1932 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Felgueiras 1932 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Felgueiras 1932 had 64% of the ball to Alverca's 36%, shots finished 10-1, expected goals 2.51 to 0.66 — on chances, Felgueiras 1932 could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alverca led the recent series with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.20 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Felgueiras 1932 vs Alverca?

Felgueiras 1932 0-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Felgueiras 1932 vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Felgueiras 1932 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Felgueiras 1932 41%, draw 27%, Alverca 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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