Oliveira Hospital 3-1 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oliveira Hospital EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 51%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.16/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/2.00
-3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -42%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
277 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oliveira Hospital
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Caldas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 2-1 HT 1-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.09.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
07.01.2023 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 2-2 HT 2-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oliveira Hospital
3-1
AWAY Caldas
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Oliveira Hospital vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oliveira Hospital got the better of Caldas 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Oliveira Hospital had 37% of the ball to Caldas's 63%, shots finished 5-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Oliveira Hospital had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Oliveira Hospital and 1.33 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Oliveira Hospital vs Caldas?

Oliveira Hospital 3-1 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oliveira Hospital vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Oliveira Hospital 28%, draw 28%, Caldas 44%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5
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