Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Stoke City v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-2
Stoke City
İNCL
1-1
HT 1-1
Stoke City
İNCL
2-2
HT 1-1
Middlesbrough
İNCL
Stoke City 1-3 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics
Middlesbrough beat Stoke City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Middlesbrough made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Stoke City had 47% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 53%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.15 to 2.28.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stoke City and 0.83 for Middlesbrough.
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Stoke City 1-3 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 25/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 34%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.