Middlesbrough 0-5 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 27 Aug 2024

📅27/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
18%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 29% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.29
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
11%
4.28
X/2
7%
8.79
X/X
12%
5.45
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
17%
6.24
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-9.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.9pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.29/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.60
-2% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
25.0 Crosses 16.7
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Stoke City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 302
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Stoke City Stoke City 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.10.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
14.03.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
17.08.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
30.04.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
11.12.2021 Stoke City Stoke City 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
0-5
AWAY Stoke City
1.84 xG 1.54
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
583 Passes 227
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City swept aside Middlesbrough 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 66% of the ball to Stoke City's 34%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.84 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.33 for Stoke City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Stoke City?

Middlesbrough 0-5 Stoke City in the England - League Cup on 27/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 43%, draw 25%, Stoke City 32%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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