Watford 2-0 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 27 Aug 2024

📅27/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 25% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.1
X/1
11%
3.86
X/2
8%
11.45
X/X
13%
6.36
2/1
8%
20.6
2/2
10%
8.35
2/X
6%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.0pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 21%
-22% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.06/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/1.86
+50% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +99% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.7 Crosses 12.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
439 Passes 258
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2024 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 3-2 Watford Watford İNCL
12.08.2023 Watford Watford 0-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
10.04.2010 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
15.09.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
03.03.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
16.09.2008 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
2-0
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
2.18 xG 0.47
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
420 Passes 450
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
36 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Watford vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford saw off Plymouth Argyle 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Watford as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Watford had 49% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 51%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.18 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Watford and 1.17 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Watford vs Plymouth Argyle?

Watford 2-0 Plymouth Argyle in the England - League Cup on 27/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Watford 48%, draw 28%, Plymouth Argyle 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Watford), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Watford) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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