Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
7.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.56
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
17%
5.91
X/2
15%
5.67
X/X
10%
5.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.0
2/2
14%
3.37
2/X
8%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.25/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.85
+57% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
16.0 Crosses 19.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Watford
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.04 xG 1.16
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
214 Passes 418
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 51
3 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 0
12.08.2023 Watford Watford 0-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
10.04.2010 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
15.09.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
03.03.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
16.09.2008 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
22.03.2008 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-1 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-3
AWAY Watford
2.23 xG 1.70
41% Ball Possession 59%
31 Total Shots 18
11 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
301 Passes 460
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle and Watford shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 41% of the ball to Watford's 59%, shots finished 31-18, expected goals 2.23 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 0.83 for Watford.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Watford?

Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Watford in the England - Championship on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 40%, draw 24%, Watford 35%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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