Djurgarden 0-1 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.68
No
57%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.72
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
13%
6.59
X/2
15%
4.78
X/X
12%
4.64
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
23%
3.0
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
44%
Away Win
39%
+4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.2pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.52/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.44
-13% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
422 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
23.7 Crosses 18.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Djurgarden
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Malmö FF
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 0.67
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 Passes 462
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.08.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
17.07.2023 Djurgarden Djurgarden 2-0 HT 1-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
12.03.2023 Djurgarden Djurgarden 2-2 HT 0-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇK
20.10.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-3 HT 2-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden İSÇ
16.05.2022 Djurgarden Djurgarden 4-0 HT 2-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
20.03.2022 Djurgarden Djurgarden 0-1 HT 0-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
0-1
AWAY Malmö FF
0.20 xG 1.54
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
319 Passes 506
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF squeezed past Djurgarden 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Djurgarden had 41% of the ball to Malmö FF's 59%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.20 to 1.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Malmö FF's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Djurgarden had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Djurgarden and 0.83 for Malmö FF.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs Malmö FF?

Djurgarden 0-1 Malmö FF in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 30%, draw 26%, Malmö FF 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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