Homburg 1-2 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.55/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.57
-8% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
288 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
1W-0D-4L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
03.04.2024 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Homburg Homburg 5-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg nicked a narrow win over Homburg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Homburg and 1.80 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?

Homburg 1-2 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Homburg 47%, draw 26%, SGV Freiberg 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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