Homburg vs SGV Freiberg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Homburg v SGV Freiberg — Team-Based Signals
Homburg vs SGV Freiberg Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Homburg
ALMBÖL
5-1
HT 2-1
SGV Freiberg
ALMBÖL
2-0
HT 0-0
Homburg
ALMBÖL
SGV Freiberg nicked a narrow win over Homburg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Homburg and 1.80 for SGV Freiberg.
What was the final score of Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?
Homburg 1-2 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?
Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Homburg 47%, draw 26%, SGV Freiberg 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.