Palestino 2-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.67
Over
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.64
2-3
43%
1.73
4-5
17%
4.07
6+
7%
19.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.64 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.0
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
21%
5.68
X/2
10%
5.68
X/X
12%
4.11
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
14%
4.0
2/X
12%
13.35
Value flag · X/1 at 5.68 — our 21% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.9pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.4pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palestino EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 38%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
2.17/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.83
+19% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
27.2 Crosses 10.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palestino
2-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.04 xG 1.58
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
238 Passes 410
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Palestino vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palestino nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and on the day Palestino made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palestino had 39% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 61%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.04 to 1.58 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Palestino vs Cruzeiro?

Palestino 2-1 Cruzeiro in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palestino vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palestino win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Palestino 38%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palestino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palestino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CSA More Copa Sudamericana
25 Apr 2025
01:00 Corinthians vs Racing Club Montevideo Analysis →
01:00 Godoy Cruz vs Gremio Analysis →
03:30 Deportes Iquique vs Cienciano Analysis →
05:00 Uni. Catolica vs Defensa y Justicia Analysis →