Corinthians 1-0 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.07
Over
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.7
2-3
41%
1.8
4-5
23%
3.06
6+
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 20.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.55
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
10%
21.5
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
6%
18.6
X/X
10%
6.99
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
8%
17.05
2/X
5%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Corinthians win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-14.0pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.2pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 14%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.26/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.29
+13% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -59%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
425 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
29.4 Crosses 20.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.07 xG 0.78
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
372 Passes 180
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.05.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo CON CSA
03.04.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians CON CSA
15.04.2010 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians LKU
25.02.2010 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
1-0
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
0.82 xG 0.98
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
380 Passes 202
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians edged past Racing Club Montevideo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Corinthians had 62% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 38%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.82 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Corinthians and 0.50 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Corinthians 1-0 Racing Club Montevideo in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 57%, draw 24%, Racing Club Montevideo 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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