Uni. Catolica 3-1 Defensa y Justicia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.67
Over
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.62
2-3
37%
1.73
4-5
22%
4.1
6+
9%
20.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.44
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
18%
4.22
X/2
7%
8.84
X/X
11%
4.4
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
13%
7.52
2/X
11%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.1pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
0.84/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.67
-70% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +130% / -55%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
18.0 Crosses 21.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
3-1
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
1.97 xG 0.27
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
409 Passes 148
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 3
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Defensa y Justicia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica saw off Defensa y Justicia 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 68% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 32%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.97 to 0.27.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Defensa y Justicia?

Uni. Catolica 3-1 Defensa y Justicia in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Defensa y Justicia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 42%, draw 31%, Defensa y Justicia 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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