Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.45
Over 2.5
37%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.09
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.84
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.23
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.85
X/1
17%
4.57
X/2
13%
6.81
X/X
13%
3.55
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
13%
5.91
2/X
8%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.0pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.8pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.08/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.99
-18% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.4 Crosses 22.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
02.12.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
25.07.2020 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
21.09.2019 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.05.2015 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
20.07.2014 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-3 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
06.05.2014 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.66 xG 1.29
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
210 Passes 439
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Avispa Fukuoka at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 36% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 64%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.66 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.00 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 43%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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