Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.07
6+ Goals
10%
19.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.6
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
14%
6.31
X/2
14%
5.35
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
15%
3.48
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 43%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -15%
1.02/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.23
+5% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
16.9 Crosses 19.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.03 xG 1.65
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
210 Passes 514
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.07.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
09.03.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
26.06.2016 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
23.11.2015 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
08.03.2015 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.25 xG 1.91
25% Ball Possession 75%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
194 Passes 734
73% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Tokyo Verdy made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 25% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 75%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cerezo Osaka.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.40 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Cerezo Osaka?

Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 37%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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