Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.49
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.49
X/2
9%
6.29
X/X
16%
3.62
2/1
10%
33.5
2/2
11%
5.26
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.13/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.46
-17% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
26.06.2016 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
23.11.2015 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
08.03.2015 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-1
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.66 xG 0.89
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
538 Passes 291
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Tokyo Verdy 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 62% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 38%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.66 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.33 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 44%, draw 30%, Tokyo Verdy 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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