Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Mar 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4-0 HT 2-0
Sagan Tosu
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 24% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
17%
3.62
X/2
8%
13.85
X/X
12%
6.37
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
8%
10.85
2/X
7%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.6pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.9pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.65/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.66
-8% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
421 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
24.4 Crosses 14.8
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.16 xG 0.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
314 Passes 453
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
09.04.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
05.11.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
19.02.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.07.2021 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
08.05.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.61 xG 0.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
30 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
328 Passes 405
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 6
27 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima swept aside Sagan Tosu 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 46% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 54%, shots finished 30-7, expected goals 2.61 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.50 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Sagan Tosu?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54%, draw 25%, Sagan Tosu 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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