Albirex Niigata 1-0 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.36
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.46
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
17%
4.67
X/2
9%
5.96
X/X
15%
3.66
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
14%
4.87
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.12/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.20
-15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
400 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.7 Crosses 15.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.65 xG 2.28
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
442 Passes 390
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 40
6 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
01.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
10.09.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
24.04.2016 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
24.10.2015 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 4-2 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
07.06.2015 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-0
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.00 xG 0.45
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
557 Passes 314
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata nicked a narrow win over Nagoya Grampus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Albirex Niigata made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 61% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 39%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.00 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.00 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus?

Albirex Niigata 1-0 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 40%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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