Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.95
6+ Goals
9%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.92
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
13%
5.21
X/2
11%
5.39
X/X
13%
3.78
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
4.1
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +14%
1.92/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.98
-20% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +45%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 74%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
23.0 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-0
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.98 xG 0.39
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 4
193 Passes 440
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past Kashima Antlers 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Machida Zelvia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 35% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 65%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.98 to 0.39.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Kashima Antlers?

Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 36%, draw 28%, Kashima Antlers 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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