BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
28%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
14%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
69%
-1.6pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.9pp
12%
Away Win
12%
-0.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.58/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.74
-7% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
22.1 Crosses 12.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.11 xG 0.63
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
416 Passes 192
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-1 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
06.04.2025 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-0 HT 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
24.11.2024 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 1-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
05.11.2022 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-4 HT 0-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
10.04.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 3-0 HT 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
10.11.2021 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-0
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima
1.06 xG 0.53
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
15 Corners 4
409 Passes 165
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 10
39 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United edged past Nakhon Ratchasima 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 68% of the ball to Nakhon Ratchasima's 32%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.06 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for BG Pathum United and 0.17 for Nakhon Ratchasima.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima?

BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima in the Thailand - 1st Division on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 67%, draw 21%, Nakhon Ratchasima 12%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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