Sporting Gijon 3-2 Cartagena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.8pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cartagena EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.62/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.73
-23% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
21.8 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cartagena
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 1.16
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 374
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.12.2024 Cartagena Cartagena 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
13.04.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 1-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
02.12.2023 Cartagena Cartagena 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
22.04.2023 Cartagena Cartagena 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
11.12.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-0 HT 0-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
26.03.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 4-1 HT 1-1 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
3-2
AWAY Cartagena
2.26 xG 1.46
68% Ball Possession 32%
25 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
564 Passes 231
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Cartagena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon nicked a narrow win over Cartagena 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Gijon as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 68% of the ball to Cartagena's 32%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 2.26 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cartagena led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Gijon and 0.83 for Cartagena.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Cartagena?

Sporting Gijon 3-2 Cartagena in the Spain - 2nd Division on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Cartagena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 55%, draw 24%, Cartagena 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Gijon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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