Mainz 05 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Jul 2026

Mainz 05
3-0 HT 2-0
Holstein Kiel
📅25/07/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.63
No
39%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.21
2-3 Goals
33%
1.82
4-5 Goals
32%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
4%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.28
X/2
6%
10.1
X/X
9%
6.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.25
2/2
11%
7.49
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.25 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
57%
+0.9pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.1pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
57%
+4.2pp
39%
BTTS No
43%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 23%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
2.59/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.53
+40% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
2.09 xG 0.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
391 Passes 266
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
24.11.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
24.10.2017 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AFK
21.12.2011 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AFK

Mainz 05 3-0 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
3-0
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3 Total Shots 2
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 swept aside Holstein Kiel 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (61%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, shots finished 3-2.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.25 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?

Mainz 05 3-0 Holstein Kiel in the Friendlies on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 58%, draw 20%, Holstein Kiel 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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