Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mainz 05 v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
3-2
HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
AFK
2-0
HT 1-0
Mainz 05
AFK
Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 and Holstein Kiel shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
This one beat our numbers. Mainz 05 carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Mainz 05 had 57% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 43%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.86 to 0.94.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.33 for Holstein Kiel.
What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 55%, draw 22%, Holstein Kiel 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.