RB Leipzig 3-1 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.66
6+ Goals
11%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.12
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
19%
4.59
X/2
11%
9.9
X/X
9%
6.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.6
2/2
10%
6.88
2/X
8%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.6 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.97/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.81
+23% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
16.5 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.65 xG 1.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
457 Passes 358
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-3 HT 1-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
03.05.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
16.12.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
29.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
05.11.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
3-1
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.64 xG 0.87
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
535 Passes 239
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig got the better of Hoffenheim 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 67% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 33%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.64 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.33 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim?

RB Leipzig 3-1 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 49%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2025
16:30 Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Analysis →
16:30 Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →
16:30 Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
16:30 Bochum vs Stuttgart Analysis →
19:30 Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →