Freiburg 1-4 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.03
6+ Goals
13%
9.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.81
1/2
9%
23.3
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
11%
7.18
X/2
12%
5.23
X/X
8%
5.15
2/1
11%
31.0
2/2
18%
2.93
2/X
8%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 48%
+9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.35/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.45
+13% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
17.8 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.74 xG 1.85
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
261 Passes 526
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
09.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
16.09.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.02.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.08.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
14.01.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-4
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.79 xG 3.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
376 Passes 333
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 36
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund swept aside Freiburg 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Borussia Dortmund made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 54% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 46%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.79 to 3.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Freiburg and 4.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Freiburg 1-4 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 36%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 39%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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