Atletico Madrid 3-0 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 Aug 2024

Atletico Madrid
3-0 HT 1-0
Girona
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.21
Over 2.5
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.46
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.92
6+ Goals
15%
8.54
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.5
X/1
16%
3.78
X/2
7%
12.45
X/X
10%
6.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.15
2/2
12%
9.26
2/X
8%
17.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.3pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.7pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.77/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/2.00
+8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
461 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.7 Crosses 14.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Girona
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.29 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
424 Passes 469
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
32 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.04.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Girona Girona İS1
03.01.2024 Girona Girona 4-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
13.03.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
02.04.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
16.01.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İSPK

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-0
AWAY Girona
1.22 xG 0.68
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
404 Passes 561
87% Pass Accuracy 92%
20 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid swept aside Girona 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 42% of the ball to Girona's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.22 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.50 for Girona.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Girona?

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 50%, draw 25%, Girona 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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