Valur 3-1 Vestri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 25 Aug 2024

Valur
3-1 HT 1-1
Vestri
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.14
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
70%
-6.1pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.1pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+3.1pp
33%
Under 2.5
28%
+4.6pp
67%
Over 2.5
72%
-4.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.4pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valur EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Vestri EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.31/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.12
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
26.6 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valur
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Vestri
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
2.67 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
335 Passes 391
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
44 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.06.2024 Vestri Vestri 1-5 HT 1-1 Valur Valur İZL
23.02.2023 Valur Valur 3-0 Vestri Vestri İZLK
15.09.2021 Vestri Vestri 2-1 HT 1-1 Valur Valur İZK
16.02.2020 Valur Valur 5-0 HT 2-0 Vestri Vestri İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valur
3-1
AWAY Vestri
3.30 xG 0.15
71% Ball Possession 29%
30 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 0
505 Passes 151
88% Pass Accuracy 63%
39 Box Touches 5
31 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valur vs Vestri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valur beat Vestri 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valur as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Valur had 71% of the ball to Vestri's 29%, shots finished 30-3, expected goals 3.30 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Valur had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Valur and 0.75 for Vestri.

What was the final score of Valur vs Vestri?

Valur 3-1 Vestri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valur vs Vestri?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Valur 63%, draw 20%, Vestri 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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