Gnistan 3-2 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 25 Aug 2025

Gnistan
3-2 HT 1-1
Oulu
📅25/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
11%
4.54
X/2
9%
8.04
X/X
13%
5.79
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
15%
5.66
2/X
5%
14.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.5 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 29%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -18%
1.36/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.67
-3% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 82%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
23.6 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Oulu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.15
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
247 Passes 306
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2025 Oulu Oulu 2-3 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
27.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
18.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 2-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
11.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
17.10.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN2
27.06.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
3-2
AWAY Oulu
1.43 xG 2.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
290 Passes 243
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan edged past Oulu 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gnistan had 52% of the ball to Oulu's 48%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.43 to 2.24 — on chances, Oulu could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gnistan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gnistan and 1.17 for Oulu.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Oulu?

Gnistan 3-2 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 25/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 46%, draw 25%, Oulu 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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