Utrecht II 4-3 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Aug 2025

📅25/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
49%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
21.95
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.05
X/2
12%
4.97
X/X
8%
5.45
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
24%
2.75
2/X
9%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.95 — our 13% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
49%
Away Win
45%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.7pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.15/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.55
-34% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 81%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
14.4 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ajax II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.78 xG 0.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
294 Passes 416
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.02.2025 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-2 HT 0-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
18.10.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 0-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
05.02.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
11.12.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.04.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
11.12.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
4-3
AWAY Ajax II
3.17 xG 2.19
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
295 Passes 358
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II edged past Ajax II 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Utrecht II had 45% of the ball to Ajax II's 55%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 3.17 to 2.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Utrecht II and 1.00 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Ajax II?

Utrecht II 4-3 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 27%, draw 24%, Ajax II 49%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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