Atalanta II 5-1 Pergolettese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 29% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta II EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 23%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.32/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.41
-17% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Pergolettese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Atalanta II Atalanta II 0-2 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
11.11.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 0-3 HT 0-1 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta II
5-1
AWAY Pergolettese
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atalanta II vs Pergolettese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta II cruised past Pergolettese 5-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atalanta II as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atalanta II had 69% of the ball to Pergolettese's 31%, shots finished 19-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta II and 1.00 for Pergolettese.

What was the final score of Atalanta II vs Pergolettese?

Atalanta II 5-1 Pergolettese in the Italy - Serie C on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta II vs Pergolettese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta II 45%, draw 27%, Pergolettese 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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