Crotone 1-2 Sorrento Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.43
6+ Goals
8%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 34% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.2pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sorrento Calcio EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.34/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.25
-8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sorrento Calcio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
24.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 1-0 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
1-2
AWAY Sorrento Calcio
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 0
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sorrento Calcio nicked a narrow win over Crotone 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 29% — and on the day Sorrento Calcio made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crotone had 51% of the ball to Sorrento Calcio's 49%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Crotone had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crotone and 0.50 for Sorrento Calcio.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio?

Crotone 1-2 Sorrento Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Sorrento Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crotone 40%, draw 32%, Sorrento Calcio 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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