Rot-Weiss Essen 3-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 25 Sep 2024

Rot-Weiss Essen
3-1 HT 3-0
Borussia Dortmund II
📅25/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.29
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.55 — our 26% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.12
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.34
X/2
17%
6.35
X/X
14%
5.37
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
14%
3.97
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.5pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rot-Weiss Essen v Borussia Dortmund II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.32/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.32
-14% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.6 Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
13.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
19.02.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
13.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-0 HT 1-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
17.03.2021 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II ALMBÖL
20.09.2020 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen ALMBÖL

Rot-Weiss Essen 3-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
3-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
305 Passes 303
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen saw off Borussia Dortmund II 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Rot-Weiss Essen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 49% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 51%, shots finished 16-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Essen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 0.67 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Rot-Weiss Essen 3-1 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 37%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund II 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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