Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 25 Sep 2025

📅25/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
2.08/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.35
+37% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -42%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.54 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
286 Passes 226
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 1-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
25.06.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
15.04.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.10.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
11.02.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
03.08.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe nicked a narrow win over Independiente Medellin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Cup on 25/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 49%, draw 27%, Santa Fe 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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