Aarau 1-0 Stade Nyonnais — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
25%
2.69
6+ Goals
15%
6.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-10.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Nyonnais EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.26/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.06
-8% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
17.1 Crosses 15.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Stade Nyonnais
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
1.41 xG 1.63
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
293 Passes 276
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.09.2024 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 1-2 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
20.05.2024 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 4-3 HT 2-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
10.02.2024 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
12.11.2023 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 4-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
01.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-0
AWAY Stade Nyonnais
4.28 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
351 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau nicked a narrow win over Stade Nyonnais 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aarau had 55% of the ball to Stade Nyonnais's 45%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 4.28 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aarau's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Stade Nyonnais led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aarau and 2.60 for Stade Nyonnais.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?

Aarau 1-0 Stade Nyonnais in the Switzerland Challenge League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aarau 46%, draw 24%, Stade Nyonnais 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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