Metz 1-0 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.85
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
19.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
18%
4.12
X/2
11%
7.9
X/X
12%
4.39
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
12%
6.35
2/X
8%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.44/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.32
+22% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
17.5 Crosses 17.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Guingamp
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.65 xG 1.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
301 Passes 379
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.05.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR2
12.09.2022 Metz Metz 3-6 HT 3-3 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
24.02.2018 Guingamp Guingamp 2-2 HT 1-1 Metz Metz FR1
05.08.2017 Metz Metz 1-3 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
20.05.2017 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR1
21.12.2016 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1-0
AWAY Guingamp
2.23 xG 0.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
421 Passes 353
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH Metz vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metz nicked a narrow win over Guingamp 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Metz as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Metz had 52% of the ball to Guingamp's 48%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.23 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Metz's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Metz and 2.50 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Metz vs Guingamp?

Metz 1-0 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Metz 44%, draw 28%, Guingamp 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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