Carrarese 3-2 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
34%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.69
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.1
6+ Goals
8%
19.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 37% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.03
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
4%
13.5
X/1
15%
6.68
X/2
10%
5.02
X/X
19%
4.06
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.22
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-7.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 45%
+19% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.13/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.21
-19% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
17.0 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carrarese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Venezia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
30.09.2020 Venezia Venezia 2-0 HT 0-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
3-2
AWAY Venezia
2.01 xG 2.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 377
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 38
20 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carrarese edged past Venezia 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Carrarese found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carrarese had 43% of the ball to Venezia's 57%, shots finished 14-25, expected goals 2.01 to 2.79 — on chances, Venezia could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Venezia?

Carrarese 3-2 Venezia in the Italy - Serie B on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 34%, draw 32%, Venezia 34%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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