Mainz 05 II 2-1 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.49
No
34%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
23%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.7pp
66%
BTTS Yes
63%
+2.7pp
34%
BTTS No
37%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +33%
1.30/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/1.38
-11% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
05.10.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 2-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
27.04.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-2 HT 0-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
21.10.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
08.04.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
02.10.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II nicked a narrow win over SGV Freiberg 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (66%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mainz 05 II and 1.83 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?

Mainz 05 II 2-1 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 32%, draw 27%, SGV Freiberg 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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