SGV Freiberg 0-1 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
38%
3.28
Away
19%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
3%
X/X
23%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.1pp
38%
Draw
27%
+11.2pp
19%
Away Win
27%
-8.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.13/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/2.14
-33% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 2-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
27.04.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-2 HT 0-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
21.10.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
08.04.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
02.10.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II nicked a narrow win over SGV Freiberg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 42% / 38% / 19% — and on the day Mainz 05 II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.20 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II?

SGV Freiberg 0-1 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 42%, draw 38%, Mainz 05 II 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ALMBÖL More Germany - Regional League
5 Apr 2025
14:00 BFC Dynamo vs Altglienicke Analysis →
14:00 Babelsberg vs Viktoria Berlin Analysis →
15:00 Meuselwitz vs Eilenburg Analysis →
15:00 Steinbach vs Homburg Analysis →
15:00 Bahlinger SC vs Eintracht Trier Analysis →
15:00 Göppinger SV vs Villingen Analysis →