Mainz 05 II 0-2 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.43/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.91
-3% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
1W-0D-2L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
08.04.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
02.10.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05 II
0-2
AWAY SGV Freiberg
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg saw off Mainz 05 II 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; SGV Freiberg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mainz 05 II had 61% of the ball to SGV Freiberg's 39%, shots finished 14-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mainz 05 II and 2.33 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?

Mainz 05 II 0-2 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 37%, draw 25%, SGV Freiberg 39%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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