Katowice 1-0 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.46
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.55
X/2
11%
6.19
X/X
13%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.09
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.59/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.15
+17% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
27.0 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
414 Passes 237
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.05.2025 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
04.11.2024 Katowice Katowice 1-2 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
10.12.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Katowice Katowice HAZ
14.05.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
06.11.2021 Katowice Katowice 1-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
1-0
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.11 xG 1.73
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
189 Passes 318
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice squeezed past Korona Kielce 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Katowice had 40% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 60%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.11 to 1.73 — on chances, Korona Kielce could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Katowice had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Katowice and 1.00 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Korona Kielce?

Katowice 1-0 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Katowice 42%, draw 24%, Korona Kielce 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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