Benfica 5-0 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
79%
1.18
Draw
13%
6.26
Away
8%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.59
Over
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
17%
5.44
2-3
40%
2.01
4-5
29%
2.57
6+
14%
5.99
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.44 — our 17% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.35
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
4%
26.0
X/1
33%
3.74
X/2
2%
24.85
X/X
5%
9.9
2/1
13%
21.8
2/2
3%
21.45
2/X
4%
30.5
Value flag · X/1 at 3.74 — our 33% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Benfica win — 79%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
79%
Home Win
79%
+0.0pp
13%
Draw
12%
+0.3pp
8%
Away Win
8%
-0.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.9pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca The Market 11%
-2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +15%
2.79/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.28
+12% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -17%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
37.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
23.3 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Arouca
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.47 xG 0.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
423 Passes 351
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
01.12.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
12.05.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-0 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR
06.01.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
31.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica PORLC
01.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-3 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
5-0
AWAY Arouca
3.84 xG 0.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 1
398 Passes 330
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
47 Box Touches 4
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica cruised past Arouca 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 53% of the ball to Arouca's 47%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 3.84 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Benfica and 0.33 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Arouca?

Benfica 5-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Benfica 79%, draw 13%, Arouca 8%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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