Deportivo Alaves II 0-1 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.2pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 28%
-20% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -15%
0.85/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.45
-34% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 19.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves II
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Gernika
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2024 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
28.01.2024 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 1-2 HT 0-1 Gernika Gernika İS4
17.09.2023 Gernika Gernika 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
30.04.2023 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
17.12.2022 Gernika Gernika 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves II
0-1
AWAY Gernika
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves II 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves II at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves II had 59% of the ball to Gernika's 41%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gernika led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Deportivo Alaves II and 1.40 for Gernika.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika?

Deportivo Alaves II 0-1 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves II vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves II win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves II 48%, draw 26%, Gernika 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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