Udinese 1-2 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 26 Jan 2025

Udinese
1-2 HT 1-0
Roma
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.71
Over
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.79
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.9
6+
8%
17.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.41
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
12%
6.12
X/2
9%
5.24
X/X
12%
4.2
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.47
2/X
9%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
33%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 43%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.07/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.09
-4% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
17.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Roma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.85 xG 1.58
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
308 Passes 441
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
14.04.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
26.11.2023 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
16.04.2023 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
04.09.2022 Udinese Udinese 4-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
13.03.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-2
AWAY Roma
0.80 xG 2.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 5
353 Passes 385
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma squeezed past Udinese 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Roma found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Udinese had 49% of the ball to Roma's 51%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.80 to 2.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Udinese and 1.83 for Roma.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Roma?

Udinese 1-2 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Udinese win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Udinese 38%, draw 27%, Roma 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Udinese), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Udinese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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