Anderlecht 4-1 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.88
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
15%
4.81
X/2
11%
7.09
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.27
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.64/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.72
+4% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.2 Crosses 16.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mechelen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.93 xG 1.31
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
411 Passes 387
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 1-3 HT 1-2 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
01.02.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
07.10.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 3-1 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
23.04.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-3 HT 1-2 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
09.10.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 1-3 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
23.01.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 0-1 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
4-1
AWAY Mechelen
1.86 xG 1.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
333 Passes 360
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht cruised past Mechelen 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Anderlecht as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Anderlecht had 48% of the ball to Mechelen's 52%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.86 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Anderlecht had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Anderlecht and 1.33 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Mechelen?

Anderlecht 4-1 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 41%, draw 29%, Mechelen 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anderlecht) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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